The analysis, part of the OECD¡¯s Education Indicators in Focus series, says that in 2010 China¡¯s share of the pool was 18 per cent, but by 2020 it will have grown to 29 per cent.

By contrast, just over a quarter of 25- to 34-year-olds with tertiary educations will hail from the US or the European Union, according to the projections.

¡°By 2020, China aims for 20 per cent of its citizens ¨C or 195 million people ¨C to have higher education degrees,¡± the report says.

It adds that if this goal is realised, the country will have a graduate population that is roughly equal in size to the projected total number of 25- to 64-year-olds in the US.

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India¡¯s share of graduates will rise only slightly from 2010 to 2020 (from 11 to 12 per cent), while the US¡¯ proportion will fall from 14 to 11 per cent, the report states.

The UK¡¯s share should increase from 3 to 4 per cent, it predicts, but it foresees significant declines for Japan (7 to 4 per cent) and the Russian Federation (11 to 7 per cent).

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Six per cent of young graduates will hail from Indonesia, the report says.

The growth of the ¡°knowledge economy¡± will absorb the growing pool of graduates, according to the report.

It cites a ¡°consistently upward trend¡± in the proportion of science and technology occupations, which indicates that the ¡°demand for employees in this knowledge economy sector has not reached its ceiling¡±.

david.matthews@tsleducation.com