Countries such as Australia that had booming international student recruitment before the pandemic may never recover the ground they have lost?because of their struggle to reopen borders and long-term mobility trends, experts have said.

Meanwhile, other nations stand to gain from such a downturn and could use policy tools such as covering the costs of quarantine to cement a competitive advantage in attracting students.

The forecasts?follow growing warnings?that the continued border restrictions in Australia and New Zealand were making a recovery in student recruitment for the countries unlikely over the next year.

But Australia¡¯s geopolitical tensions with China, coupled with the trend towards regional mobility in Asia, could mean it may never return to the levels of growth seen before the pandemic even when it does?open up.

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Anip Sharma, a partner at LEK Consulting, which analyses long-term international student mobility trends, said although he thought the country would bounce back from the Covid crisis, it was still facing other major headwinds.

¡°Given geopolitics and relationships with China, the heady growth of Chinese students into Australia probably will be a thing of the past,¡± he said, adding that other source countries?such as India would struggle to compensate for this loss on their own.

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LEK is estimating annual growth in international intakes in Australia to fall to 4 per cent over the coming years, down from 10 per cent pre-pandemic, while the US, Canada and the UK see their growth pick up.

Anna Esaki-Smith, co-founder of Education Rethink, said it was ¡°important to remember¡± that a mobility ¡°realignment¡± was already?under way before the pandemic, especially the rise of Asian students looking for ¡°less expensive options that are closer to home¡±.

However, she added that the challenge for countries like Australia and New Zealand was that they would be battling these long-term trends from a position where their attractiveness was already damaged.

She pointed to the ¡°astonishing¡±?statistic?that only 200 international students arrived in Australia in February, a fall of more than 120,000 students on the year before.

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¡°Some think Australia¡¯s borders won¡¯t fully reopen until sometime in 2022, so we¡¯re potentially looking at a two-year shutdown. Certainly, the financial hit of that long a closure can be estimated¡­but how can you measure the impact on student sentiment towards Australia?¡± she said.

¡°Even for students who have their heart set on studying in Australia, the uncertainty of a possible two-year closure will give them pause.¡±

Others say that this loss in the medium term will also be seized upon by competitors such as the UK and Canada, whose attractiveness due to a more open approach to borders is being augmented by other policy incentives?such as post-study work opportunities.

Janet Ilieva, founder of Education Insight, said that this ¡°layered¡± effect of non-Covid policies backing up the pandemic response was making the offer of countries such as the UK more ¡°solid¡±.

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She added that universities in such nations may also try to gain an even greater advantage through specific Covid-related measures in the short term, for example?helping with quarantining?expenses, something that in particular?could appeal to students from south Asia who were more cost-sensitive.

Ms Ilieva also pointed out that a key trend during the pandemic had been students ¡°hedging their bets¡± on their final destination country by making applications in different places, something that was a break from the past when they might have been more wedded to a particular nation.

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¡°Student demand is in a state of flux. Coupled with the fact students are making more applications¡­factors like the ability to travel to the country are really significant. And this is where the UK is faring well,¡± she said.

simon.baker@timeshighereducation.com