Australia¡¯s higher education sector may have dodged a political bullet, after a compromise candidate became the nation¡¯s 30th prime minister.

Sources say the elevation of former treasurer Scott Morrison may have spared the sector a fresh round of turmoil, with education minister Simon Birmingham ¨C a key backer of ousted prime minister Malcolm Turnbull ¨C now tipped to retain his portfolio.

It could also avoid the ¡°ideological cold war debate¡± that might have ensued if Mr Morrison¡¯s opponent, the conservative former home affairs minister Peter Dutton, had claimed the top job.

Mr Birmingham¡¯s standing in the sector has been tarnished by last year¡¯s freezing of Australia¡¯s demand-driven higher education funding system, and a deterioration of research funding under his watch.

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Nevertheless, he is respected in higher education circles. Perhaps more importantly, he offers a clear policy direction ¨C particularly?after a rare political win, when his legislation to tighten student loan repayments passed parliament earlier this month.

This would have counted for little if Mr Dutton had won Friday¡¯s leadership ballot. As a Turnbull loyalist, Mr Birmingham could have expected demotion.

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Instead Mr Morrison¡¯s victory, by a narrow margin in a party room ballot on 24 August, takes the heat out of the allocation of cabinet positions.

Rather than settling scores, Mr Morrison is likely to look for stability ¨C even though a spat over the funding of Catholic schools, another Birmingham responsibility, has been a major political headache for the government.

Andrew Norton, higher education programme director with the Grattan Institute, said Mr Birmingham now had a reasonable chance of retaining his portfolio despite the Catholic funding imbroglio.

¡°There¡¯s always a trade-off between trying to solve a political problem and putting in someone who has to get their head around a very complex portfolio in a very short period of time,¡± Mr Norton said.

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The failed tilt by Mr Dutton, considered an immigration hardliner, may also relieve fears of a downturn in international education. The Australian Financial Review concerns that a Dutton-led government could deter?international?students.

Mr Norton said this was unlikely without ¡°substantive policy action¡±. But he said the ¡°vibe¡± around international students had changed significantly in policy circles.

¡°People are drawing a connection between population congestion issues and the temporary migration programmes, of which international students are by far the biggest. Even though only Labor has actually mentioned capping [international student numbers] to date, I wouldn¡¯t be surprised if this rebounded on international education in some way.¡±

Meanwhile, the body representing universities seized on the leadership change to urge a reversal of recent unpopular measures. Universities Australia chief executive Catriona Jackson said Mr Morrison should overturn the ¡°economy-damaging cuts to universities¡± and ¡°end the university funding freeze¡±.

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¡°Universities are the engine room of national growth and prosperity,¡± she said. ¡°It makes no sense to cut the source of our future economic growth.¡±

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com